Energy demand for space cooling in buildings in the People&#;s Republic of China (&#;China&#;) is rising rapidly, placing strains on the electricity system and contributing to local air pollution and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. China saw the fastest growth worldwide in energy demand for space cooling in buildings over the last two decades, increasing at 13% per year since and reaching nearly 400 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity consumption in . As a result, space cooling accounted for more than 10% of total electricity growth in China since and around 16% of peak electricity load in . That share can reach as much as 50% of peak electricity demand on extremely hot days, as seen in recent summers. Cooling-related CO2 emissions from electricity consumption consequently increased fivefold between and , given the strong reliance on coal-fired power generation in China.
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China leads the global market for air conditioners (ACs), and bigger units are increasingly popular. China presently produces around 70% of the world&#;s room air conditioners and covers about 22% of installed cooling capacity worldwide. AC sales grew fivefold since , representing nearly 40% of global sales in . Mini-split ACs are still common, as is &#;part time&#; and &#;part space&#; cooling behaviour in which households cool rooms only when they are occupied and for a few hours. Yet larger multi-split and central cooling systems are growing in numbers, due to architectural choices and changing consumer preferences. As a result, the average size of new units sold in was around 7 kilowatts of cooling capacity (kWc), compared with previous models that were between 3 kWc and 5 kWc. Those larger and centralised cooling systems can be significantly more energy intensive.
Rated performance often does not reflect operational energy consumption. Two principal factors affect the energy efficiency ratio (EER) of cooling equipment: operation at low partial loads and the efficiency of the distribution system. Real-time data show that the operational EER can be 13-19% lower than the rated energy performance, mostly due to units operating at low partial loads. For larger centralised systems, there is typically a big gap between equipment and cooling system energy use (e.g. when energy for pumps is included), leading to overall system efficiencies that can be as much as half the rated cooling equipment performance.
The AC market is changing and is not keeping up with its energy efficiency potential. Among the preferred mini-split ACs, higher-efficiency variable-speed inverter technologies have been increasingly popular since the late s. Yet the average performance of those units in new sales is still as much as 60% less than best available products and more than 20% lower than typically available options. This gap is similar for other equipment types such as multi-split ACs and reflects a widening spread between minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and available efficiency in the market.
Greater affordability, climate and changing occupant behaviour will increase cooling energy use. China experienced exceptionally fast growth in cooling demand since , but around 40% of households still do not own an AC. As income levels continue to grow, AC ownership could reach as much as 85% by . Growing expectations for thermal comfort and an increasing number of hot days equally will increase how often those ACs are used. The areas with the largest increase in cooling degree days by are also typically those with higher population densities, meaning the felt temperature and consequent cooling demand during summer months and extreme heat events could be even higher. This will undoubtedly lead to increased energy use for space cooling, both in terms of AC ownership and operational hours.
Without strong policies, space cooling electricity use could swell to 750 TWh or more by . This is due to both growing cooling demand and expected weak improvement in the energy efficiency of ACs sold, which are only 10-20% more efficient by in the Baseline Scenario than units sold in . Greater shifts toward &#;full time&#; and &#;full space&#; cooling behaviour in buildings would increase electricity demand by even further, to as much as 900 TWh or more.
Energy-efficient air conditioning with improved building design and system management can keep cooling electricity use stable, while also providing economic, health and environmental benefits. Improved MEPS in the Efficient Cooling Scenario lead to an average efficiency of ACs in that is 50% higher than in . This cuts cooling energy demand by more than 200 TWh in compared with the Baseline Scenario. An additional 100 TWh can be saved using improved building envelope measures such as low-emissivity windows and cool roofs and through smart cooling devices that ensure energy is used when and where cooling services are needed. Electricity capacity needs in the Efficient Cooling Scenario are consequently more than 50 gigawatts lower than in the Baseline Scenario. This translates to more than 10% reduction in costs to meet space cooling demand, 1 260 megatonnes in cumulative CO2 emissions savings and 30% reduction in major local air pollutant emissions.
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Effective policy intervention is necessary to drive energy-efficient cooling in buildings. China can deliver significant energy and cost savings through implementation of a comprehensive national policy framework including regulation, information programmes and industry incentives. Improving the stringency of current MEPS across all product types is key to drive the penetration of high-performance cooling devices. Standards can also introduce testing conditions that reflect actual operating conditions, particularly at low partial loads, while the government can support industry to identify innovative solutions that deliver even higher AC performance in the future. Training and awareness raising can also ensure proper installation, operation and maintenance of cooling equipment and systems, avoiding unnecessary energy consumption. Improved data collection, research and co&#;operation with manufacturers can equally help to identify emerging trends, technology needs and energy efficiency opportunities that enable sustainable cooling.
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